The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been pumping higher this week, following US CPI data that pointed at moderating price pressures and major financial institutions revealing substantial holdings in US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin was last changing hands just below $66,000, hitting new monthly highs above $66,750 earlier in the day.
Morgan Stanley disclosed holdings of $270 million worth of spot Bitcoin ETFs in a Wednesday 13F filing.
In February, the US investment banking and asset management giant signaled that it intended to gain BTC exposure.
The bank is also preparing to recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs to its clients.
Morgan Stanley’s BTC holdings news comes as hundreds of other institutional investors are also disclosing their holdings.
As of Thursday, Q1 13F filings show that over 500 asset managers have exposure to spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Millennium Management is currently the largest known holder, with nearly $2 billion in holdings – roughly 3% of the hedge fund’s $64 billion in AUM.
Millennium is king of the bitcoin ETF holders w/ about $2b across four ETFs. This is out of over 500 holders (about 200x the avg for new ETF). Majority are inv advisors (60%) but a big dose of HFs (25%). Never can be totally sure what HFs up to but they were def big buyers. pic.twitter.com/iVtVXjhId0
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 15, 2024
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the new spot Bitcoin ETFs have about 200x the average number of holders for a new ETF.
It’s “impressive just how many different institution types represented in first 13Fs”, he said.
These holders include the State of Wisconsin Investment Board, which revealed it now holds almost $100 million in spot BTC ETFs.
Dont underestimate this State of Wisconsin Investment Board buying Bitcoin ETFs. This will start a chain reaction – May 28th is looming. $27 trillion in these funds. pic.twitter.com/5wlVwsYyGi
— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) May 15, 2024
Can the Bitcoin Price Retest Yearly Highs?
Bitcoin bulls hope renewed optimism about Bitcoin’s institutional adoption via ETFs and macro headwinds will soon lift it back above $70,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of over $300 million on Wednesday after positive US CPI numbers, as per The Block.
US CPI 3.4% YoY EXPECTED 3.4% pic.twitter.com/cOwqY3Qty9
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) May 15, 2024
Wednesday’s push higher helped Bitcoin move back above its 21 and 50DMAs and to fresh monthly highs.
To continue rising, the Bitcoin price must break above its late April highs above $67,000.
That could open the door to a pushback above $70,000 and a potential retest of yearly highs.
US equities could be a lead indicator for Bitcoin here. The S&P 500 is currently carving out new record highs above 5,300, having retraced.
Bitcoin could soon reach fresh record highs above $74,000.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed heading into the summer, with only a month past since the halving.
Summers tend to be choppy and bearish for risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin. Some have noted that this rule does not tend to apply in election years, however.
Meanwhile, post-halving rallies don’t typically get going for 4-6 months after the halving, not after one month.
So, a surge to new record highs in the next few weeks could be a bit premature.
That said, this Bitcoin bull run is breaking historical patterns/norms.
ETF optimism already powered the Bitcoin price to new record highs before the halving, and new record highs have historically come after the halving.
Bitcoin is maturing into a fully-fledged macro asset, which doesn’t tend to have highly obvious/predictable long-term patterns, such as Bitcoin’s three-year pump/one-year dump patterns, which have been more or less in place over the past 12 or so years.