The Bitcoin (BTC) price rejected strong resistance in the form of its 50DM around $61,300 on Thursday, subsequently falling back to around $60,000, despite new economic data coming out that pushes back on the idea that the US economy is nearing a recession.
As the Service Sector continues to expand in the United States, the potential to steer clear of a recession remains promising. Today, the service PMI once again registered at 55.
It remains imperative for the US Consumer to sustain their spending habits, as any deviation from… pic.twitter.com/ISOwQbFBdE
— Andrea Lisi, CFA (@Andrea_Texas_82) August 22, 2024
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal an incoming series of interest rate cuts beginning next month in a speech tomorrow. Could this send the Bitcoin price vaulting higher?
Will Powell Send the Bitcoin Price Surging?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal the start of a series of 25 bps rate cuts starting next month at tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech.
Given that market’s are currently pricing in a modest 25% probability of 50bps rate cut next month, that could be a marginal disappointment to some traders betting on bigger and faster rate cuts.
The Bitcoin price could therefore see some marginal downside as bets on a 50bps rate cut are wound down.
But the size of the September rate cut won’t be the main point of focus.
Rather, the Fed’s longer-term plans will be. I.e. how far and fast will the Fed cut interest rates in the coming years.
Markets are currently pricing around 125bps worth of easing by the end of 2025, per CME data.
Powell’s remarks will be closely watched as they could impact these longer-term expectations.
Even if these longer-term expectations remains un-impacted, the fact that a Fed rate cutting cycle is incoming is likely to still be a tailwind for the crypto market, even if its expected.
That’s because lower interest rates mean more liquidity in the economy and financial markets. And that liquidity usually ends up chasing riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Easing liquidity conditions in the years ahead is one reason why the Bitcoin price will likely touch $100,000 in the coming year.
A friendlier US political landscape, continued institutional adoption via ETFs and the delayed impact of the halving supply shock are further long-term bullish catalysts.
Regarding what short-term traders can expect, look out for a potential breakout from the recent pennant structure. That could open the door to a return to July highs at $70,000.
Any fresh breakout to new record highs, however, may need to wait until after the summer and potentially after the US election.